SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking previews Wednesday’s MLB betting action and shares the two top picks on his baseball betting card.
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Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
San Diego is looking to avoid a sweep when they host Milwaukee in the finale of a three-game series. The first pitch for the Padres vs. Brewers matchup is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego, Calif. These teams didn’t play last year, and this is the third of six meetings this season. The Brewers held the Padres to just two hits during a 3–1 win in the first game. Milwaukee scored five runs in the third inning and posted a 6–0 shutout win last night. The Padres won the 2019 season series 4–3, and they outscored the Brewers 14–8 during a three-game sweep in San Diego.
Milwaukee (10–7) began the season with a 1–3 record, but they have won nine of their last 13 games. The Brewers (.588) are percentage points behind first-place Cincinnati (.600) in the NL Central standings. Before this series, Milwaukee lost twice, 6–5 F/10 and 6–1, at home to Pittsburgh. The Brewers avoided a sweep with a 7–1 win during the second game against the Pirates. Including a pair of 2–1 series wins against the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee is 6–2 on the road this season. The Brewers score 4.41 runs per game on offense and allow 3.12 runs on defense.
San Diego (10–9) opened the season at 8–3 but has lost six of their last eight games. The Padres, who are expected to challenge Los Angeles this season, sit third in the NL West standings. They trail the first-place Dodgers by 4.5 games. San Diego entered this series following two losses over three games at home against the Dodgers. After losing the first two contests, 11–6 F/11 and 2–0, the Padres avoided a sweep with a 5–2 win in the series finale. The last six San Diego losses were by at least two runs, and they were outscored 35–12. The Padres score 3.68 runs and allow 3.42 runs per game.
RHP Adrian Houser (1–2, 3.14 ERA) is making his fourth start for Milwaukee. He received limited run support during an 8–2 loss to Minnesota and a 6–1 loss to Pittsburgh in two starts at home. Houser didn’t allow an earned run, on six hits over five innings, during the Padres 9–5 win in St. Louis. After opening the season on IR, RHP Dinelson Lamet (elbow) makes his first start for San Diego. Dinelson was 3–1, with a 2.09 ERA over 12 starts, and finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting last season. Expecting a close contest, take the runs bet on the Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-134) run line
Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees
New York hosts Atlanta for the second match of a two-game interleague series. The game time for the Yankees vs. Braves contest is 6:35 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in New York. This is the second of four meetings this season. The Yankees scored two runs in the eighth inning to secure a 3–1 win against the Braves last night. The victory snapped a five-game losing streak by New York. These teams split the season series 2-2 last year. New York posted 6–3 and 9–6 wins at Yankee Stadium before the Braves winning 2–1 and 5–1 in Atlanta. Despite a recent 3–8 slide, the Yankees are the favorite tonight.
New York (6–10) was a preseason World Series favorite but, after a slow start, the Yankees are last overall in the AL East standings. New York trails division-leading Boston by five games. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay outscored the Yankees 18–8 during a three-game sweep in New York. Six of the Yankees’ last seven losses have been by two runs or more. While general manager Brian Cashman is confident New York will overcome the ‘disappointing’ start, the Yankees need better pitching and more punch on offense. Before last night, the Yankees were outscored 30–14 during five losses.
Atlanta (7–10) was a preseason favorite to win the National League East, but they are off to a slow start. The Braves are currently fourth in the NL East standings and trail the New York Mets by 2.5 games. Atlanta opened the season with a 4–8 record, and they were streaky during their first 12 games. The Braves lost four straight, then won four in a row, before losing four straight again. Atlanta won three of four games before this series. The Braves are 4–6 on the road, and the four wins were by a 27–12 margin. Atlanta has been outscored 31–13 during their six losses as visitors.
RHP Corey Kluber (0–1, 6.10 ERA) is making his fourth start for New York. The Yankees won his first start, 5–3 against Toronto, but lost his last two starts 10–5 to Tampa Bay and 5–4 to the Blue Jays. RHP Ian Anderson (0–0, 4.70 ERA) makes his fourth start for Atlanta. He allowed eight runs on 15 hits over 15.1 innings, and the Braves went 2–1 during his first three starts. Anderson has 19 strikeouts and has issued seven walks. Atlanta RBI and hits leader, Ronald Acuña Jr. (abdominal), sat out last night and is doubtful tonight. While that’s a key loss, bet the moneyline and back the Braves.
Pick: Atlanta Braves (+114) moneyline
2021 MLB Regular Season Betting Record: 9–15 (-7.78 Units)
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