The MVP Debate: Is Nikola Jokić a Lock to Win?

Welcome to the Morning Shootaround, where every weekday you’ll get a fresh, topical column from one of SI.com’s NBA writers: Howard Beck on Mondays, Chris Mannix on Tuesdays, Michael Pina on Wednesdays, Chris Herring on Thursdays and Rohan Nadkarni on Fridays.

Mannix: All right, Beck, let’s do this. Let’s dive into the most complicated, hotly contested and what will possibly be considered the most controversial MVP voting in recent memory. You ready?

Beck: Well, Mannix, the good news is we can count on everyone being totally rational and respectful, regardless of any differences of opinion! Anyway, what controversy? This MVP pick is easy.

Mannix: Always. So, Beck, in early-March this vote was an easy one. LeBron James was averaging 25-8-8. He was shooting 37% from three. The Lakers had the best defense in the NBA. All that talk about slow-playing the start of the season, post-bubble? Nah. LeBron was a runaway leader on my ballot. Yours?

Beck: James and Joel Embiid were the early front-runners, for sure, with James holding a very slight edge before both were lost to injury. Remember, Embiid was averaging a robust 30 points and 11.5 rebounds, with 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.4 blocks and was making nearly 10 free throws per game when he went down on March 12. Nikola Jokić (we'll come back to him) was also dominating, but the Nuggets were just fifth in the West in mid-March, which was a drag on his candidacy at the time.

Jokić's rise in the MVP rankings tracks with the Nuggets' rise in the standings—but he also got a boost from the other guys missing so many games. Which brings us to the first sticky question of this race: Where should James and Embiid rank now? How heavily should we weigh their absences? How many games missed is too many? James ended up playing just 45 out of 72 games, which to me isn't enough to make the ballot. Part of being "valuable" is being available, and James missed a full third of the season. Embiid played 51 games—still a low percentage by historical standards—but I think it was enough, combined with his dominant stats and the 76ers’ first-place finish, to keep him in play for a spot on the ballot.

But we all judge these things differently. Your take?

Mannix: A slight edge? I knew you were a Giannis hater, Beck—but you're a LeBron hater, too? Take nothing away from Embiid; he was having a dominant season before his injury. A Shaq-like season—not coincidentally, he was the last center to win MVP. But how LeBron was able to pick up where he left off in the Finals, including a long stretch without Anthony Davis? I know we’re not supposed to count last season but for me the minute and a half LeBron had for an offseason is factored in. But it was LeBron-Embiid at that point, for sure. When did things start to change for you?

Beck: LOL, I guess those first-place votes I cast for Giannis the last two years don't count? And who's the LeBron hater here? Pretty sure you're the one who left him off your All-NBA ballot on our last pod. But we digress ...

When did things start to change? Obviously, with the injuries. I felt all along that if James and/or Embiid returned with enough season left, they could still make a run at MVP. But as I noted, they both just missed too much time to be considered for the top slot on the ballot. And James missed too much time to make the ballot, period, given how many strong candidates we have this year. I assume you agree, based on our All-NBA debate last week … or are you going to contradict yourself?

Mannix: Keep spinning, Beck—I'm not the one taking historical context into a yay or nay on Giannis's MVP vote!

James hit the point of no-return on my ballot around mid-April, when it became clear this injury was going to cost him roughly a third of the season. Bill Walton won MVP with 58 games played in 1978. That's playing in about 71% of his games for the Blazers. LeBron finished this season at 62%. That's just too few to earn a spot on my ballot. That's where it started to get complicated, right?

Beck: Enough about who's not on the ballot. Let’s get to players who are actually in contention—and whether that includes Embiid, despite the missed games. He's had an incredible season (well, 70% of a season) for the top team in the Eastern Conference. But man, have we seen a lot of incredible seasons. Nikola Jokić. Stephen Curry. Damian Lillard. Giannis Antetokounmpo. Luka Dončić. I could easily list 15 to 20 players worth putting somewhere on the ballot (which is why we need a bigger ballot!). So let’s get down to it: Who's in the running for your top five? And stop ducking the games-played question on Embiid! Time to commit, Mannix.

Mannix: Embiid is going to haunt me. I'm OK with going not with Curry in the top spot (team success holds him back) or Lillard (ditto) or even Giannis (though, dude, he put up MVP numbers again). He finished the season averaging 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.9 assists, shooting 30.3% from three on a team that fended off Milwaukee and Brooklyn to claim the top spot in the Eastern Conference. I'm fine with virtually any combination of players going three to five; there are justifications for all of them. But are we really going to deny Embiid the MVP?

Beck: So, we’ve reached the moment of truth. And the truth is, as great a season as Embiid had, he can't be No. 1 on my ballot. If we're looking at historical precedent, Embiid does have a plausible case: The Walton MVP year you referenced earlier. Embiid played roughly the same percentage of games. The problem for Embiid is that there's another superstar putting up similarly incredible stats for another contender—and this guy hasn't missed a single game: Nikola Jokić. In fact, for the season, Jokić has played 903 more minutes than Embiid, which is a staggering gap. Jokić was dominant all season, averaging 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists. Embiid has Jokić beat in scoring average, free throw attempts and blocks, and he's the better defender. But Jokić averaged far more assists and posted significantly better shooting percentages from both two-point and three-point range. Sure, the 76ers finished first in the East, but the Nuggets won just two fewer games, in a tougher conference. The rest of the ballot is worth debating. But No. 1 is Jokić, and it's not even much of a debate.

Mannix: It's not? This is where I need to introduce you to Christopher Emmanuel Paul. Understand: The CP-for-MVP debate is polarizing. I should know—I've been arguing against it on the podcast for some time now. Officially, CP joined a 34-win Suns team. But Phoenix—led by the great Ricky Rubio— went 8–0 in the bubble, evidence that suggests it was poised for a breakout. So while there is no question CP is an upgrade, it's fair to wonder where the Suns would be without him. Where do you stand on Paul's candidacy?

Beck: Chris Paul is, even at age 36, an incredible player and a phenomenal leader. He's a big reason why the Suns took this incredible leap. Is he worthy of being on the ballot? Absolutely. But No. 1? No. He's not the Suns’ main offensive engine (that’s Devin Booker), and he’s not having the sort of dominant season that Jokić, Embiid, Giannis, Curry, Dončić and Lillard have. There are a lot of intangibles with CP3—all legit, but hard to quantify. The Suns, as you note, were already on the rise. Their young players, from Booker to Deandre Ayton to Mikal Bridges to Cam Johnson, have all made great strides. That's also a credit to Monty Williams (my top choice for Coach of the Year) and his staff. Speaking of dominant seasons, Curry just won the scoring title (at age 33!) and notched his second 30-5-5 season, at ridiculous efficiency. The Warriors' record will keep Curry from the top spot on most ballots, but he's gotta be on there somewhere. How high would you place him?

Mannix: Curry has a strong case, and shout out to Warriors p.r. maven Raymond Ridder for all the calls, emails and texts this past week making it! Look—in 2016–17 Russell Westbrook won MVP on a 47-win Thunder team. That was the last time—and one of the rare times—that the MVP came off a team not ranked among the top teams in either conference. Curry's Warriors won 54.1% of its games this season. For context, Westbrook's Thunder won 57.3%. I understand how bad Golden State would be without Curry. I just can't vote the top spot for MVP to a player on the team that finished 10th in its conference. Am I wrong?

Beck: Winning—and winning at a high level—is an essential part of MVP. I've been consistent on that point over the years, which is why Westbrook shouldn't have ... dammit, Mannix, you just baited me back into this annoying debate! No, not going there. And no, Curry can't win MVP because of the Warriors' record. But I will note that the Warriors won 58.7% of their games (37–26) when Curry played. And I will tell you this: He'll be no lower than third on my ballot. And given Embiid's missed games, I'm tempted to elevate Curry to No. 2. The real debate for me comes down to the four and five slots. Giannis had another dominant season. Kawhi did Kawhi things. Dončić was excellent. Lillard was inspiring. Jimmy Butler just went 21-7-7 and led the league in steals. And then there's CP3. I need a bigger ballot! But we get to pick only five, so where are you going with it?

Mannix: O.K., let's go back to the front, then. Fifth for me is Curry—his outstanding season deserves a place somewhere on my ballot. At fourth, I'm going with Dončić. Just outstanding numbers for a team that shook off a sluggish start to secure a top-five playoff spot. Third is Giannis, and at some point there needs to be a conversation about a back-to-back MVP posting comparable numbers to his MVP seasons and finishing no higher than third. And at No. 2, Embiid, who for me was probably 10 more games played from doing enough to win it. Are we close?

Beck: We're close. But I'll be honest: We're having this conversation before ballots are actually due, and per my usual custom, I'll probably go right up to the deadline. Point being, I'm still not 100% locked. But as of right now, fifth place is Lillard, who single-handedly kept the Blazers competitive after they lost three-fifths of their starting lineup. Fourth is Giannis, who was not quite as dominant (nor was his team) as in his MVP seasons. Third is Curry, though I just might flip him with Embiid, my current No. 2. Which means I think you and I are voting for the same guy at No. 1. Unless you're going rogue and picking Rudy Gobert?

Mannix: Nice, add Gobert to the list of players Howard is disrespecting on this thread. While I believe Gobert deserves top-10 consideration—the dude is a walking top-ten defense and continues to improve offensively—he's not atop my ballot. That would be Jokić, who has become kind of ... polarizing? I think there's a perception that Jokić is going to win this award only because of durability. The Joker played in all 72 games this year for the Nuggets, while the competition, as noted above, has dealt with injury issues. So let's start there—how big was durability in your decision?

Beck: Lighten up, Francis. You sound as hypersensitive as, well, all those small-market NBA fans who believe the world is conspiring against them. Look, Gobert is amazing—and as you say, would merit top-10 consideration … if we had a bigger ballot. Thanks for endorsing my proposal! Jokić is also No. 1 on my ballot, and durability was a factor. But let’s be clear: Jokić is the MVP because the dude flat-out dominated this season, whether you’re going by conventional numbers or advanced stats. He nearly averaged a triple-double (26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, 8.3 assists), and on high efficiency (.606 effective field-goal percentage). He’s the best-passing center the game has ever had. He also checked the other critical box: playing for a contender. The Nuggets finished third in the West, with a winning percentage of .653 (equivalent to 53 wins in a normal season). Was there a similarly strong case for Embiid, had he played more games? Yes, absolutely. But it's a full-season award, and being available matters. Jokić was more valuable this season in part because he played 21 more games than Embiid did. This wasn't a tough call.

Mannix: Hey—I agree with you. I think Jokić's case was strengthened by the Nuggets’ surge following the Jamal Murray injury. Murray went down on April 12. Denver proceeded to win four straight and nine of its next 10. That wasn’t all Jokić, but he certainly was the glue that kept the team together. And even without Murray—would it surprise you if Denver won this first-round series against Portland? You don't survive the loss of an All-NBA level talent like Murray without another dominant star. Jokić is it.

Beck: I'll go a step further: It won't surprise me if the Nuggets make the conference finals—or even win it, if the Lakers somehow stumble due to injuries and lack of rhythm. Jokić is that good, and his supporting cast—even without Murray—is strong. So we agree on Jokić at the top, but it appears our ballots will diverge from there. I've got Steph Curry landing at No. 2, by virtue of his incredible season and his strong finish, with the worst supporting cast of his career. I'd been leaning Embiid for much of the season, but again it comes down to missing a third of the season. Curry played 12 more games than Embiid, and 567 more minutes. He was just as vital, or even moreso, to his team than Embiid was to his. I generally lean toward players from the best teams for the first two or three slots, but Curry merits the exception this year. The rest of my ballot: Embiid at three, Giannis at four, Lillard at five, with apologies to Paul, Dončić and Jimmy Butler.

Mannix: So there it is, Sports Illustrated’s 2021 MVP ballots. Two things I learned during this exercise, Beck: We both agree Jokić is MVP, and deservedly so. And that you hate the French, the Greeks and the Slovenians, the latter evidenced by your exclusion on Luka and his superlative statistics from your MVP ballot. Fair?

Beck: I mean, I hate a lot of people. But I clearly love the Serbs, Charlotteans, Cameroonians, Greeks and anyone from the Bay Area. Shout-out to Oakland.

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